Rotary Program: 10/26/05

Program Chairperson: Gerri Clark

Speaker: Michael W. Stajduhar, Senior Vice-President - Financial & Estate Planning

Mike Stajduhar has been in the banking and investment business since 1977, when he began his career as a trust officer. Prior to that, he was a staff attorney for the W. Va. State Tax Dept., and is a Past President of the W. Va. Tax Institute Board of Directors. Mike received his B.A. from Westminster College in Missouri and his Juris Doctorate from Duke University. He and his wife, Sally, live in Charleston and are the parents of four children.

Mike has come to talk to us today about one of his favorite hobbies - predicting the outcomes of local, state, and national elections. He claims to have a fairly impressive record. To prove it, he paid a dollar to brag that it has been his honor to have been so successful in his prognostications, that they have been the subject of several local T.V., radio, and newspaper stories in recent years. For example, he was only 1% off in the popular vote of the Presidential election of 2004 and only missed the electoral vote by 2. In the Senate races of 2002, he correctly called every seat up for election and only missed one Congressional race in 2004. In the one he missed, Mike says, he reasoned that the Senator from Alaska, who ran successfully for Governor and appointed his daughter, Lisa, to serve in his place, would not set well with the voters in 2004, when she ran in her own right for the position. Well, she must have done a good job as a senator, as she was re-elected by an overwhelming majority. Another observation, he says, when he reviews the present political landscape, is the polarization that has occurred between the two major political parties in the past eight years. In almost every race for state and national offices, the red states (Republicans) have become redder and the blue states (Democrats) have become bluer. Consequently, the upcoming races in 2006, show that the Democrats have more offices up for grabs than do the Republicans, but he predicts there will not be any major changes in the makeup of the Senate - the Republicans will maintain the majority they now enjoy, but the Democrats only need to win 15 of the 22 vulnerable races in the House of Representatives to gain a majority. Mike believes there are two Democrats in the House of Representatives that are sure to lose. One is in New Jersey and the other is in Rhode Island, while the Republicans have a good chance to gain the seat from Minnesota where the current Democratic congressman is planning to retire. Most other prognosticators, Mike says, believe that there is an 80% chance that the Republicans will continue to control Congress, but it is only a 50 - 50 chance which party will win the White House. He believes that some trends, that will probably influence the national elections in 2006, include gasoline prices, the current scandals in the White House staff, the overall economy, the war in Iraq, and the current budget deficit. The Republicans have lost a lot of popularity because of these, but whether they will be enough to affect the outcome of the elections is yet to be seen. Some questions from the audience included whether there would be a woman candidate for President, if Ernie Fletcher had a chance of winning a second term as Governor of Ky., and if Arnold Swartzenegger could be re-elected in California. Mike took all the questions in stride and like the good prognosticator he claims to be, answered: Yes, a woman could run, but had little chance of being elected, No, Fletcher hasn’t a prayer, and Yes, the Terminator will be baaack! Thanks, Mike. We will be watching to see if your predictions come true. - JMC